US Dollar Attempts to Bounce, Crude Oil Sinks to Three-Week Low

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Attempts to Bounce from Key Chart Support
  • SP 500 Continues to Edge Higher Toward 2000 Mark
  • Crude Oil Breaks Support, Declines to Three-Week Low

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to launch a recovery after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above double bottom support set from October 2013. A daily close above resistance at 10405, the intersection of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a recently broken trend line set from July 2011, exposes a falling channel top at 10419. This is followed by the 38.2% retracement at 10431. Alternatively, a break below the outer layer of double bottom support at 10354 exposes the 61.8% Fib expansion at 10302.

US Dollar Attempts to Bounce, Crude Oil Sinks to Three-Week Low

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices are stalling after putting in another record high, with buyers aiming to challenge resistance at 1981.50 marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. This barrier is reinforced by a rising channel top at 1989.30. A daily close above the latter level clears the way for a move the psychologically significant 2,000 figure and the 38.2% Fib at 2004.60. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% level at 1967.20 aims for the June 26 low at 1944.10.

US Dollar Attempts to Bounce, Crude Oil Sinks to Three-Week Low

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling ahead of resistance at 1334.01, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A break higher on a daily closing basis exposes the 76.4% level at 1356.16. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum however. A turn back below support at 1316.10, the 50% Fib, exposes the 1300/oz figure and the 38.2% retracement at 1298.19.

US Dollar Attempts to Bounce, Crude Oil Sinks to Three-Week Low

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing below support at 104.24, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, after taking out a rising trend line set from the May 1 low. A further push downward sees the next level of support at 103.19, the 50% level. Alternatively, a reversal above the trend line at 105.11 exposes the 23.6% Fib at 105.54.

US Dollar Attempts to Bounce, Crude Oil Sinks to Three-Week Low

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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