Price & Time:Time To Be Cautious on AUD/USD?

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD records new low for the year
  • Gold pressuring key support zone
  • Next few days critical for Aussie

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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price amp; Time:Time To Be Cautious on AUD/USD?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD touched its lowest level since July of 2013 earlier today
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the rate while below 1.3010
  • The 1st square root relationship of the 2013 low at 1.2855 remains an important near-term pivot with a close below needed to set off a more serious decline
  • An important turn window is eyed later in the month
  • A close over 1.3010 would turn us positive on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding reduced long positions above 105.30.

Price Time Analysis: GOLD

Price amp; Time:Time To Be Cautious on AUD/USD?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD fell to its lowest level since early January early today
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the meal while below 1247
  • A key downside pivot is eyed around 1213
  • A cycle turn window of some importance is seen over the next few days
  • A close over 1247 would turn us positive on Gold

XAU/USD Strategy: Square.

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

Price amp; Time:Time To Be Cautious on AUD/USD?

AUD/USD rebounded off the .8980 61.8% retracement of the year’s range earlier the week. The move higher proved short-lived, however, as the exchange rate fell sharply in the aftermath of the FOMC announcement to record its lowest level in six months today. This action is seemingly very bearish for the exchange rate, but we remain cautiously optimistic over the next few days as the cyclical “tea leaves” suggest that AUD/USD is susceptible to some kind of reversal around this time. We say this because over the next few days the 2011 high in the Aussie will measure 3.14 years at about the same time as the Autumnal Equinox. The 3.14 year interval is an important cyclical relationship that routinely pops up around market turns (the June peak in crude is a good recent example). The Autumnal Equinox is one of the most important times of the year in Gann theory and currency rates in particular have been historically susceptible to turns around this time of the year. We think this cyclical convergence increases the possibility of a turn over the next few days, but we really need to see price action confirm before looking to fade such a clear trend. Idealized turning points are seen at .8920, .8865 and .8835.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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