The first trading day of the second half of the year was dominated by strong risk appetite. Both SP 500 and DOW surged to record high overnight. SP 500 ended the day up 13.09 pts at 1973.32. DOW was up 129.47 pts at 16956.07, after hitting 16998.70 earlier, just missing 17000 mark. Asian equities followed and were broadly higher. In the currency markets, dollar was sold off broadly and was down against all major currencies except the Japanese yen. In particular, Sterling was boosted by solid economic data and surged to the highest level against the greenback since 2008. Sterling traders will look into construction PMI to be released in European session while dollar will look into ADP employment in US session today.
The dollar index dropped to as low as 79.40 so far this week and took out 79.88 near term support. The development suggests that rebound from 78.90 has completed at 81.02 already. Near term outlook is turned bearish for a test on 78.90 low. However, it should be noted again that 78.72 represents an important long term fibonacci support, that is, 50% retracement of 72.69 to 84.75. Dollar index has tried to break this support a couple of times since 2012 but failed. So, we won’t turn medium term bearish until this level is firmly broken. Instead, while deeper decline could be seen in near term, strong support is still likely around 78.72 and bring reversal.
While the greenback is weak, Aussie lost some momentum and retreated in Asian session after poor trade data. Australia reported AUD -1.91b deficit in May comparing to expectation of AUD -0.21b. Exports fell 0.5% mom and rose a mere 0.6% yoy. On the other hand, imports rose 1% mom and 4.4% yoy. Economists noted that the significant falls in hard commodity prices hurt exports and caused the ballooning in trade deficit.
Looking ahead, UK will release PMI construction, Eurozone will release PPI in European session. US will release Challenger job cuts, ADP employment chance and factory orders in US session.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9438; (P) 0.9471; (R1) 0.9529; More…
AUD/USD’s rise lost some steam after hitting 0.9054. But still, near term outlook stays bullish with 0.9387 support intact. Rally from 0.8659 has just resumed and should be in progress for medium term fibonacci level at 0.9583 next. On the downside, however, break of 0.9387 support will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 0.9211 support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 are viewed as a medium term correction. Recent development argues that it’s possibly finished at 0.8659 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.6008 to 1.1079 at 0.8544. Rebound from there would extend higher to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.8659 at 0.9583 first. Sustained break there will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0155 and above. However, break of 0.9080 near term support will dampen this bullish view and would likely extend the correction from 1.1079 to a new low.
Monetary Base Y/Y Jun
Trade Balance (AUD) May
Construction PMI Jun
Eurozone PPI M/M May
Eurozone PPI Y/Y May
Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jun
ADP Employment Change Jun
Factory Orders May
Crude Oil Inventories